Thursday 16 June 2011

Egil Olsen – Playing the odds

You have to give it to Egil Olsen. He has absolutely no interest in what anybody thinks of his chosen tactics or football philosophy. He’s been absolutely unapologetic about the way he has wanted his team to play during his combined 11 years as Norway’s national coach. When he started his first reign in 1991 he was just what the doctor had ordered, a strong, charismatic (in his own way) character with a crystal clear view of how the Norway should play. He was blessed with a generation of players perfect for his methods, individually better than previous generations but still not high-profile or famous enough to question their manager’s tactics, instead following his instructions to the letter, backed by a (almost) collective belief in the tactics.

While most Norwegian football fans would love their team to play a bit more expansive, with a lot more emphasis on individual skill, it is the role of the football authorities to put in place the coaching system and football culture that will produce the skilled players needed to successfully play that way. The role of the national coach is to get 100 % out of the players he has at his disposal at any given time, and Egil Olsen is unshakable in his belief that his way is the only right way for these players.

No surprises then that he before Norway’s European Championship qualifier away to Portugal stated clearly that the team would have to play plenty of long balls behind Portugal’s defence, the home team’s speed and accuracy on the counter attack making the cost of losing the ball in one’s own half too risky to contemplate. And it almost worked, Norway creating a fair few chances in the first half through their aggressive and direct play, their wastefulness costing them dearly early in the second half when Helder Postiga headed home the only goal of the game.

Always analysing, always calculating, Olsen could not be tempted to push more men forward. A 1-0 nil defeat would equal the win Norway had over Portugal in Oslo, goal difference now becoming the deciding factor if the teams were to finish on the same points total at the end of the group stage. With two home games against Iceland and Cyprus either side of the away tie to Denmark remaining, Olsen looked at the odds and decided to fold. Better to keep it at 0-1 then risk giving another goal and a bigger hand to Portugal.

Egil Olsen  - a guest player at the Norwegian Poker Championship in 2007 – has always played the numbers game, and not only in calculating the risk of losing a ball in your own half against Portugal or using detailed analysis of player’s performance years before Opta became fashionable. During his first reign as national coach he became very interested in a Norwegian mathematician’s  formula regarding the methods used to compromise the FIFA rankings. Another type of coach would have said that the best way to  improve your ranking would be to win games, but Olsen was all ears to the mathematician's findings on how to optimise your chances to climb the rankings, one of them that the ideal number of international matches a year was eight.

The subject of the FIFA rankings was perhaps the most interesting point before the underwhelming friendly against Lithuania. Even with the defeat to Portugal a win against the Baltic nation would ensure Norway a place among the top seeds in the draw for the world cup qualifying campaign to be held in Rio in July. A terrible game in Oslo was symbolised by Norway’s late winner. Erik Huseklepp won a cheap penalty and while Morten Gamst Pedersen’s meagre effort was saved by the Lithuanian goalkeeper, the Blackburn winger slotted home the rebound, securing Norway’s place as a top seed in the draw.

Tied with Denmark and Portugal on 10 points with three games left, Egil Olsen’s style may not have many supporters in the wider football community or excited the Norwegian masses in the same way as almost 20 years ago. But he’ll make no excuses for having given Norway their best shot at qualifying for a major tournament since their last appearance in 2000. 

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